The Daily Composite Price (DCP) has trended downward throughout the year 2022. It went down from the high of 189.95 US cents/kg on 23 February 2022 to the low of 122.99 US cents/kg on 31 October 2022, a whopping 35% decline due to the unexpected Russia/Ukraine war in March 2022. The yearly average price was 161.23 US cents/kg (compared to 171.92 US cents/kg in 2021).
As the world was recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic with optimistic economic growth expected for 2022, the war erupted between Russia and Ukraine and had prolonged since February 2022. As the war intensified, negative market factors continued to dominate the global market, such as the supply disruption, energy crisis, food crisis in Europe, currency and financial crises, and global inflation. These market factors dampened the economic outlook and optimism about economic recovery, causing global demand to decline.
Although NR production peaked in H2 2022, NR production in TIM might not increase at large scale due to 1) the leaf disease, 2) erratic weather conditions, 3) increasing temperature, 4) low fertilizer input caused by elevated costs, 5) drought and 6) tappers leaving plantations earlier because of low NR prices. The latest NR statistics report by ANRPC forecasts NR production to be 14.343 million tons and NR consumption to be 14.805 million tons for 2022, showing a deficit of 462,000 tons.
NR production in Thailand is expected to be lower during the wintering periods in April, May and June 2023, which would further reduce the amount of NR produced in the country. The same trend will most likely be true for Indonesia. Malaysia is expected to see a 10% decline in NR production during the wintering season in H1 2023.
Market experts expect that the recovery path of the global economy will be improved, with less political uncertainty, de-escalation of the Russia/Ukraine war, controlled inflation in view of lower crude oil prices, monetary/fiscal stimulus adopted by inflation-affected nations to support global economic growth and China’s relaxation of its Covid restrictions. Thus, the market is expected to see better demand for NR while production is forecast to pick up slowly; this fundamental factor will help to improve market sentiment in NR markets.