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NATURAL RUBBER (NR) PRICES
(IRCo'S DAILY COMPOSITE PRICE - DCP)
29 November 2022    IRCo’s DCP 132.71 US Cents/Kg (+0.92 US Cents)    14-Day Moving Average 132.50 US Cents/Kg (+0.07 US Cents)

PHYSICAL SPOT PRICES
OF THAILAND, INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA (TIM)

29 November 2022    RSS3 156.30 US Cents/Kg (56.05 THB/Kg) STR20 132.32 US Cents/Kg (47.45 THB/Kg)    SIR20 128.62 US Cents/Kg (20,227 IDR/Kg)    SMR20 128.35 US Cents/Kg (569.50 MYR/Kg

DAILY MARKET INDICATIVE PRICES
(DMIP)

29 November 2022 Thailand USD – – – Indonesia USD – – – Malaysia USD – – –

ITRC Daily Composite Price (DCP)

0
US Cents/Kg

29 November 2022

DCP Updates

The DCP adjusted higher from the yearly low of 122.99 US cents/kg on 31 October 2022 but still hovered at a low range. It settled at 131.93 US cents/kg on 25 November 2022.

NR has underperformed other commodities this year, such as gold, silver, and cocoa. NR prices have decreased 20-30% in both spot and futures markets. Sugar and soybean were positive YTD as of 25 November 2022.

Stocks in major economics were also negative YTD, except for IDX (Indonesia). The USD weakened slightly, but the TIM currencies were still weak against the dollar.

Car sales in China, the US, the EU, and Japan improved in October 2022 from the same month last year.

The NR stock level was still high as of October 2022.

Note: All IRCo periodic reports are currently for authorised members only. For further information or an inquiry, you may reach us via email: admin@irconaturalrubber.com


Natural Rubber Market Review and Mid-Term Outlook

"Natural rubber (NR) markets have shown bearish trends since February 2022. Supply chain disruptions, acute inflation, geopolitical tensions and crises in energy, currency and financial sectors could put a further drag on the global economy in 2022 and 2023. A decline in NR production is expected due to wintering seasons and low NR prices."
International Rubber Consortium
17 October 2022

Natural rubber (NR) markets have shown bearish trends since February 2022 due to the prolonged and worsening war between Russia and Ukraine. Prevailing rubber prices trended to an unremunerative and unsustainable level for producers, mainly rubber smallholders, which would have negative impacts on NR production.

Covid-19 and bearish economic growth prospects, caused by supply chain disruptions and acute inflation, have continued to cast doubt on economic recovery and NR demand. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, especially the war between Russia and Ukraine, have posed unprecedented challenges to the global economy, leading to disruptions and crises in energy, currency, financial sectors, and the global supply chain. These could put a further drag on the already-dampened global economy in 2022 and 2023. 

The market is expected to see much lower global NR production due to a 6-month wintering period starting in December 2022 across major NR-producing countries. Wintering is forecast to begin in China (Yunnan and Hainan), followed by Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Ivory Coast, and other African countries until mid-2023. A decline of about 10-15% in NR production is anticipated in these 6 months of long wintering seasons. Besides, untapped NR planting areas expanded due to low prices and a shortage of tappers—a matter of increasing concern in Thailand and Malaysia. The forecast decline in production would help to support NR prices to adjust higher, reflecting current NR fundamentals.

IRCo Programmes and Activities

To achieve a long term price trend that is stabilised,
sustainable and remunerative to the farmers

To maintain a supply-demand balance to ensure adequate
supply of natural rubber in the market at fair prices